5 Things That Didn't Happen in 2024

We look at five things that beguiled expert commentaries—or opinions—in the year that's passing.

This is not a definitive shortlist of what we got wrong but a trend that reinforces our belief that forecasting is becoming a nut job in an era-shifting world.

We have entered unknown seas in spheres of political, economic and societal impulses. And the honest advice we have right now: invest in preparedness, wherever you are, whatever you do.

Democracy in Peril

Predictions of global democratic backsliding were many and dire at the end of 2023. Yet, dispelling those fears, many democracies showed resilience against authoritarian tendencies, which was demonstrated most dramatically in South Korea.

In the “Year of Elections", when over 70 countries, including India and the US, held elections, some elections were disputed, and several countries saw some democratic indicators decline. But the anticipation of an irreversible decline of democracy was overblown.

Netanyahu's Political Exile and the Arab Backlash

Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi)'s wars are changing the Levant and the Arab world — for better or worse. He might end up as the first Israeli head of state to expand the borders while leaving his foes critically weakened. Following the Hamas attack in October last year, Netanyahu’s unrelenting wars targeted Hamas, Hezbollah and their sponsor Iran. Many anticipated an Arab backlash, pushing the Middle East to the brink of a large-scale regional conflagration.

Not only has Netanyahu survived in power, but he has also neutralised Hamas, shaken Hezbollah to its core, and repeatedly called Iran's bluff. Could Bibi be the leader who finally settled the Palestine issue permanently and made peace with his neighbours?

The US Would Descend into Chaos if Trump were Elected Again

It hasn't turned out quite like that so far. Trump's quick and convincing victory over Kamala Harris, along with the Republicans gaining control of Congress, seems to have ensured no political chaos arising from the election result itself.

More significantly, Trump's election — on promises of tax cuts and deregulation — seems to have energised the "animal spirits" of the US corporate sector.

US stock markets are raging, the mighty dollar is strengthening against currencies, and billions of dollars are being pulled out of other economies (as FIIs did in India) to be invested in the US.

Indian Stock Markets will be Wary of New-Age Tech IPOs

Not many would have waged on public markets one year ago, rescuing India's beleaguered startup ecosystem as it was stricken by a funding winter.

Eight successful IPOs in 2024, including Swiggy's largest consumer tech IPO in Asia this year, established domestic investors warmed up to young startups as the growth and productivity drivers in the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Many of the original cohort of new-age listed companies roared back to life even as the markets cooled off in the last few weeks.

The handsome returns for VCs and bulge-bracket tech investors will hopefully prompt a fresh wave of investing.

The long run of India's consumption decade

Decadal projections heralded India as the next big consumption market, poised to surpass China. Yet 2024 told a more complex story. Signs of a consumption slowdown loomed for much of the year, but the reckoning only came towards the end when the GDP growth underwhelmed. The weariness of spending was visible even as certain pockets of the economy defied the trend.

It sparked arguments about a shifting consumption pattern, especially that of quick commerce becoming the new proxy in urban pockets. The deceleration triggered a relook at the highly vaunted GST regime as the government looks to revive consumerism — the mainstay of India story.

However, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year, marked by geopolitical cliffhangers, potential economic challenges, and groundbreaking technological advances.

Read about the top 5 trends we’ll be watching closely in the coming year.