The People and Ideas Driving Trump 2.0 - Part 1

Trump 2.0 took office yesterday, promising to reignite the trade and tariff war from his first term on a world waiting in trepidation as he bids to Make America Great Again. In 2025, a broad and intense technology war over AI is also in the mix. What exactly does Trump hope to achieve? We seek clues by looking at the people he has picked to wage the war, and what they stand for.

Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative

Trump’s pick for USTR suggests his desire to pick up the threads of his trade and tariffs approach from his first term, when Jamieson Greer served as Chief of Staff to then USTR Robert Lighthizer, but with even greater focus on China this time.

Amidst the chaos of appointments and departures in Trump 1.0, Lighthizer and Greer served the President and his cause of tariffs through the term.

Greer, a US attorney and US Air Force Judge Advocate General’s Corps veteran, was closely involved in framing, negotiating and enforcing the so-called Phase One trade deal with China during Trump 1.0.

The deal, obtained by imposing tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese exports and using it as leverage, extracted commitments from China to (among other things) buy $200-billion worth of US goods over two years.

China did not ultimately keep its commitments, which gives Greer an opening to restart the trade war from Trump 1.0, for a Phase Two deal.

Greer now advocates for intensifying tariffs against China, strategic decoupling, and protecting sensitive US technology.

In 2018, the US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium from India. India responded with tariffs on 28 US products, including steel, almonds, and apples.

The US also revoked India’s trade privileges under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in 2019, heightening trade tensions.

A proposed 10% tariff looms. But this time, India may adopt a cautious approach in responding, due to uncertainties tied to AI technology restrictions and potential impacts on overall trade.

Howard Lutnick, Commerce Secretary

Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Commerce, supports stricter trade tariffs and pro-crypto policies which could pressure India to adjust its trade strategies and accelerate crypto regulations to stay competitive in global fintech markets.

• Howard Lutnick, an American billionaire and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, has been nominated as Secretary of Commerce in Trump 2.0.
• Although Lutnick did not hold an official position during Trump's first term, he was a key supporter and advisor.
• Lutnick is expected to play a significant role in implementing trade and tariff policies, echoing Trump’s focus on "reciprocity" in trade.
• He aligns with Trump’s pro-crypto stance, supporting regulatory frameworks that favour digital assets and position the US as a global cryptocurrency hub.
• Lutnick’s policies could accelerate global adoption of digital assets, prompting India to clarify its own crypto regulations to remain competitive in fintech and digital finance.
• The changes may open new opportunities for Indian blockchain startups and fintech firms to engage with US markets or attract investment.
• Lutnick will have a say in how strongly the Commerce Department goes about enforcing the new AI tech restrictions that the Biden administration imposed in its dying days. India will need a friend in him.

Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary

Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury nominee, supports selective tariffs, harsher sanctions on Russia, cryptocurrency and eliminating the US debt ceiling—moves that could boost foreign investment in India’s markets short-term but risk long-term volatility due to geopolitical tensions and rising global debt.

• Scott Bessent, an American investor and hedge fund manager, has been nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as the United States Secretary of the Treasury.
• Although Bessent did not hold an official role in the first Trump administration, he was a significant donor, fundraiser, and economic advisor for Trump's 2024 presidential campaign.
• Bessent supports using tariffs as a negotiating tool, advocating for selective and gradual implementation.
• During his testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, he suggested that tougher sanctions on Russia could be introduced, further complicating an already volatile geopolitical landscape.
• His stance on tariffs, especially those targeting China, could indirectly impact India by reshaping global trade dynamics and altering supply chains.
• The specific effects on India would depend on how these tariffs are implemented and how India responds to the changing trade environment.
• Bessent also supports eliminating the US debt ceiling, aligning with Trump’s position to reduce fiscal uncertainty, although this could lead to higher long-term debt risks.
• Removal of the debt ceiling could trigger long-term inflation, while tighter monetary policies may cause market uncertainty, presenting challenges to India’s economic growth and trade.
• Additionally, Bessent is a vocal advocate for cryptocurrencies, pushing for policies that would position the US as a global leader in the evolving crypto economy.

Stephen Miran, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers

The 41-year-old senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital wrote a report titled no less than “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System” in November! It got him hired to chair Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers in the White House.

• The Harvard PhD has proposed a new number for Trump’s tariff card: at least 20%, going up to 50% in some cases, and applicable to allies as well as China.
• Miran believes that America’s military and economic support for other countries has led to an overvalued dollar, wide trade deficit and hollowed-out industrial base.
• He argues that high tariffs is the price America’s allies must pay to enjoy its security umbrella.
• Tariffs and international measures to weaken the dollar (something like the Plaza Accords?) could help resolve the tension between America and the countries that benefit from its global role.
• He suggests “sweeping tariffs and a shift away from strong dollar policy” for “fundamentally reshaping the global trade and financial systems.”
• Miran’s recommendations, which align with Trump’s views, will have huge implications for the world, and for India.
• New Delhi will do well to run models and simulations for itself based on Miran’s report and prepare to respond to what’s almost certainly coming.

Elon Musk, Co-lead, DoGE

One of the many in Trump 2.0 who pivoted from the Democrats camp to Trump’s, just like Trump himself, the world’s richest man has been camping in Mar-a-Lago for months now and is one of the key architects envisioning Trump’s America. With nicknames like ‘First Buddy’ and ‘Prime Minister’, he will have an outsized influence on Trump and every decision he makes.

• Musk will impact Trump 2.0’s policies and actions in EV, space, AI, robotics, and critical minerals arenas, and on America’s race with China on all these.
• Musk’s interests in space and government efficiency will also impact America’s military evolution.
• He is one of the drivers behind Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency turn. Trump 2.0’s crypto policies, driven in part by Musk and his ‘Tech Bros’ gang, could have unpredictable consequences for the global financial and trading systems.
• Musk wields his X megaphone as a weapon. He will impact Trump 2.0’s social media policies, with global impact.
• Musk could be a powerful moderator of Trump 2.0’s impulses toward China, filled as it is with anti-China heavyweights.
• TikTok’s fate in America will be a pointer to Musk’s role in Trump’s China policy.
• India will have to factor in Musk’s footprint in all of these areas, his proximity to Trump, and his ability to influence US policy toward China.
• India will have to deal with matters relating to Tesla’s entry into India, Starlink, and X accordingly.
• Only time will tell of his success in reordering the American government, especially after his DOGE co-lead Vivek Ramaswamy stepped down to pursue other political ambitions.

David Sacks, White House AI & Crypto Czar

One of Elon Musk’s boys from the ‘PayPal Mafia’, Sacks has been named to be the White House AI & Crypto Czar, to help make America the clear world leader in both.

• Sacks will guide the administration’s policies on AI and Crypto.
• He is tasked with evolving a legal framework for the cryptocurrency industry.
• In both roles, Sacks’ views and influence will impact the US-China tech race.
• Sacks will be key to how Trump 2.0 treats India on AI, especially following the Biden administration’s recent move to restrict other countries’ access to GPUs, including India’s.
• Sacks’ views and influence on Crypto will impact how Trump 2.0 looks at India through the dollar dominance lens, as Trump recently warned the BRICS.

Sriram Krishnan, Senior Policy Adviser on AI

Trump named the SRM Engineering College, Anna University, graduate as a Senior Policy Adviser on AI in the White House, causing an uproar that brought out the conflict between the MAGA/America First faction and the billionaire-libertarian-tech bros faction of Trump 2.0.

• Sriram Krishnan is to help shape and coordinate America’s AI policy, working closely with David Sacks.
• Sriram is part of the ‘tech bros’ faction, with Sacks, Musk, Marc Andreessen and others from the Silicon Valley ecosystem.
• He has spoken in favour of making the green card system better to allow tech talent to flow into America easily.

Marc Andreessen, ‘Volunteer’

The ‘unpaid intern’ in Mar-a-Lago is one more convert from the Democrats camp to Trump camp and has become its “true ideologue” on technology, innovation and efficient government.

• The Silicon Valley billionaire investor has been working for Trump 2.0 behind-the-scenes.
• He was key to influencing pro-Democrat tech leaders to lean Trump-ward and could continue to be the administration’s bridge to Silicon Valley.
• He is in the Trump camp because his views on deregulation, minimal government interference in business, and fostering innovation align with Trump’s.

The Trump 2.0 team comprises various factions and interest groups, and the members of his trade, economic, and tech policy teams differ on different issues. The one thing they all seem to agree on is deploying power (read: tariffs and technology might), to rebalance international trade in favour of the US. The agenda centred on bringing back manufacturing to the largest economy and entrenching its technological dominance. These align with Trump's long-standing thinking and instincts. Enter Trade War 2.0. Spot the challenges and opportunities. Make deals.