The People and Ideas Driving Trump 2.0 - Part 2

Trump 1.0 earnestly began America’s response to China’s rise and its bid to upend US economic, technological and military dominance. The Biden administration revitalized and built an array of security and economic partnerships around China while seeking to build a moat around the crown jewels of US technology.

But US trade deficit with China and Beijing’s technological capabilities have only risen in the last eight years. What will Trump 2.0 do, and how might that affect India? We seek clues, in Part 2 of our peek into the new US administration, by looking at Trump’s picks for his national security and foreign policy team.

Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor

The co-chair of the congressional India Caucus is no stranger to New Delhi. He represents a strong India ally in Trump 2.0, and bipartisan continuity on America’s strategic competition with China and India’s importance in that. He is Trump 2.0’s ‘containment’ man, standing somewhere between the ultra-hawkish Marco Rubio and the pragmatic JD Vance on the spectrum of views on how to deal with China.

He sees China as a long-term strategic competitor, one that must be contained through strong economic and diplomatic pressure. But he sees the possibility of China moving on Taiwan sooner rather than later and wants to urgently prepare for that militarily and with alliances.

• In his role as NSA, he will be the key voice on strategic matters in the White House, coordinating the views and policies of multiple departments and agencies in the government and providing a single-point advice to the President.
• Waltz, who is also co-chair of the Congressional India Caucus, sees India as a key strategic asset in America’s competition against China.
• He regards arrangements such as Quad and AUKUS as crucial and supports continuing Biden-era measures to protect US technological dominance.
• He would be the interlocutor henceforth, taking off from Jake Sullivan, with India’s NSA on the India-US iCET framework, touching on defense industrial cooperation, AI, semiconductor ecosystem development, human spaceflight collaboration, wireless and quantum technologies.
• But Waltz would prioritize immediate economic pressure on China, focusing on reducing supply chain dependencies and strategic decoupling.
• If Trump 2.0 follows his path, the opportunities for India to plug into those supply chains will rise.
• Waltz would also push for greater military sales, transfer of advanced technologies and co-production initiatives in areas like jet engines, drones, etc and expanding intelligence sharing, underpinned by new agreements.
• Those new agreements could include one for comprehensive security of supplies and, importantly, one for reciprocal defense procurement, which would be a big step.

Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State

Perhaps the most hawkish anti-China US Secretary of State so far, Rubio sees China as not just a strategic competitor but an enemy and an existential threat to the US. He would prefer to shut-down all other problems on his desk – the Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict – and focus on China. And he would wear down Beijing economically with tariffs and tech restrictions, while building up US military and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.

He wants the US to treat India on par with allies like Japan and Israel on access to military and critical tech. He introduced a bill to this effect last July. China sanctioned him twice, but India would love to do business with Marco.

• In 2016, Marco Rubio was a Trump critic and rival to run for the presidency. Trump derisively called him “Little Marco”; Rubio called Trump a “con artist”.
• Cut to 2025, Rubio is now a Trump loyalist and his Secretary of State.
• Rubio, an America First-er, is an ultra-hawk on China, an attitude born not just out of China’s threatening rise but more deeply ideologically.
• He wants America to focus laser-like on winning the economic, technological military and influence competition against China.
• And he would use all instruments to do so – tariffs and trade war, technology restrictions, building up US military strength in the Indo-Pacific, strengthen alliances and partnerships in the region.
• In July 2024, Rubio introduced the ‘US-India Defense Cooperation Act 2024” bill.
• He wants the US to treat India on par with America’s treaty allies like NATO countries, Japan and Israel on military sales and technology transfers.
• He wants the two militaries to build greater interoperability.
• Rubio would keep the NATO alliance, while asking European partners to contribute more to their own defense.
• Rubio supports immigration of highly skilled professionals to the US to boost the economy but has spoken for reforms to curb the misuse of H-1B visas. Any move on this front will affect Indian IT professionals.

Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense

Pete Hegseth wants to drive “wokeness” out of the US military and restore its “warrior ethos”. During his Senate confirmation hearing, he pledged to rebuild the armed forces, modernize defense technology, overhaul procurement processes, and strengthen the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a congressional initiative to increase military readiness aimed at China. If confirmed, Hegseth said, he would work with State and Commerce departments to review existing arrangements with India and make recommendations to the President with a view to strengthening India-US military ties.

• Hegseth will wage a conservative culture war in the Pentagon to drive out “wokeness” in the military and restore a “warrior ethos”, focusing on combat readiness and lethality.
• The former news anchor also plans to overhaul military procurement and contracting.
• He will “rebuild” the military, reform the acquisition process, modernize the nuclear triad, and rapidly integrate emerging technologies such as drones and hypersonic weapons.
• In the Indo-Pacific, Hegseth would strengthen the Pacific Deterrence Initiative – a congressional initiative that sets out budgets and requirements for the US military to take a combat-ready posture to deter China.
• He would work with State and Commerce to review existing relationships and agreements with India and make recommendations with a view to strengthening the India-US military relationship.

JD Vance, Vice President

The man who in 2016 called Trump “America’s Hitler” and a “total fraud” has become his strongest ally, enough for the 78-year-old Trump to choose him as the one to take his place should it become necessary to invoke Article 25 during his term. Vance has fully aligned himself with Trump’s agenda on an immigration policy of strict border controls and mass deportations, a foreign policy prioritizing China as the primary challenge and rebalancing US involvement away from Europe to meet it, and an economic policy of tariffs against China while building up US manufacturing. Vance, backed by the ‘tech bros’ of the Trump camp, prefers economic competition to a military confrontation.

• JD Vance has the President’s ear, and could prove a decisive influence, the swing vote when cabinet principals are divided, on Trump’s economic and foreign/security policy decisions.
• Vance regards prioritizing China as the US’ primary strategic competitor as key, while maintaining a no-compromise pro-Israel, anti-Iran approach in the Middle East.
• Vance’s approach is more sober than that of some of his colleagues in Trump 2.0. It consists in systematically reducing American supply chain vulnerabilities, promoting domestic manufacturing while disincentivizing dependence on Chinese production.
• He could prove the perfect foil to Trump’s “mad man” tactics at forcing the opponent into deal-making.
• Vance prefers to counter China’s geopolitical ambitions primarily by containing its economic and technological rise while strengthening US military presence and alliances to deter China militarily.
• That approach points Vance towards strengthening the US-India defense relationship, to include stronger military collaborations through joint exercises and military sales.

Our Takeaway

Intensifying US-China rivalry opens up political, economic and technological opportunities for India. The Trump 2.0 national security team is unanimous on both countering China’s ambition to upend US global dominance and on seeking India as a partner in this contest. This builds on the long-standing bipartisan consensus on India in an otherwise polarized America. India and India Inc must seize the moment and its opportunities.